Actually - What Markets Really Think

Click to see real market odds on any news story. Powered by Polymarket.

Reading the news and wondering what's actually likely to happen? Actually shows you the real odds from Polymarket - the world's largest prediction market - right on the page you're reading. Click the toolbar icon on any news article. Actually reads the headline, matches it against live prediction markets, and shows the market's probability, color-coded by confidence. No account, no wallet, no signup - discovery is completely free and private. Reading the news in Russian, Spanish, German or anything else? Actually translates the page into English before matching, because every Polymarket question is written in English. It uses your browser's own built-in translator (Chrome 138+ on desktop), so the text never leaves your device and no extra permission is asked for. If your browser has no built-in translator, the check runs on the original text and the popup tells you so rather than leaving you to wonder why nothing matched. If you trade, connect any WalletConnect-compatible wallet to unlock a Trade tab: 7-day price trend, live orderbook depth, payout and slippage preview, and one-signature limit or market orders on Polymarket - plus see your open positions and cancel resting orders without leaving the page. • Free, private discovery - embeddings run locally on your device by default. • Works on non-English news - translated on-device, nothing uploaded. • No content scripts - the page is read only when you click, only the active tab. • Optional trading - bring your own wallet; we never custody funds or keys. • Open about attribution - orders you place are tagged with our builder code. Actually does not provide financial advice. Prediction-market trading may be restricted in your jurisdiction; Polymarket enforces its own regional rules.